Thursday, November 5, 2009
“It was Dr. Abdullah’s right to choose to withdraw from the runoff election. My future actions will all be guided by the Afghan Constitution and I will accept the decision made by the Independent Election Commission of Afghanistan.” (Afghanistan’s President Hamid Karzai on his rival’s decision to withdraw from presidential elections.)
The contentious presidential elections in various parts of the world have supplied steady fodder for my blog. In the last two posts, I covered the unraveling national unity government in Zimbabwe. 
This week, I have been following presidential elections in Afghanistan, where President Hamid Karzai's chief contender and former foreign minister in Mr. Karzai's government, Abdullah Abdullah, announced on November 1 that he would not participate in the run-off election on November 7. He did so after failing to persuade President Karzai to fire the officials of the (purportedly) Independent Election Commission, who rigged the votes in Mr. Karzai’s favor in the first round of the elections. So, Dr. Abdullah’s decision to withdraw appears to have been made out of desperation and not simply because he used his right to do so, as Mr. Karzai’s quote above may suggest.
This week, I have been following presidential elections in Afghanistan, where President Hamid Karzai's chief contender and former foreign minister in Mr. Karzai's government, Abdullah Abdullah, announced on November 1 that he would not participate in the run-off election on November 7. He did so after failing to persuade President Karzai to fire the officials of the (purportedly) Independent Election Commission, who rigged the votes in Mr. Karzai’s favor in the first round of the elections. So, Dr. Abdullah’s decision to withdraw appears to have been made out of desperation and not simply because he used his right to do so, as Mr. Karzai’s quote above may suggest.Mr. Abdullah reportedly rejected Mr. Karzai’s offer to form a coalition government. (He probably was right in doing so: if Zimbabwe’s example is any indication, coalition governments formed by thuggish autocrats and their idealistic opponents are typically very shaky.)
Afghanistan’s unfulfilled elections touch upon both politicians’ future, which is why I wanted to discuss the two of them in this week’s post.
Mr. Abdullah’s withdrawal effectively left Mr. Karzai unchallenged in his quest for a second presidential term. Mr. Karzai has been getting a lot of heat from the international community for his corrupt eight-year governance that included three years as an Acting President.
The White House commented that Mr. Abdullah’s decision would have no impact on the U.S. policies on Afghanistan. It may not affect the substance of the policies themselves: the U.S and its allies proffering troops to prop up Mr. Karzai’s regime are going to continue to insist on a transparent and inclusive rule in Afghanistan. But Mr. Abdullah’s decision will certainly hinder the implementation of said policies because the allies will be dealing with the same old coterie of power-hungry drug-trafficking warlords, still presided by Mr. Karzai, who received another proof of his unrivaled status after his opponent’s emotional announcement about dropping out from the race.The Obama Administration should have fought harder to ensure that the run-off happens, that it is organized responsibly and not in haste, and that it is conducted with a greater transparency than the first vote. Mr. Karzai might have, indeed, garnered a majority of the votes but, with the November 7 ballot having been called off, we will never know for sure. Washington’s insistence on a free and fair election, regardless of the outcome, would help prove that President Obama really meant what he said when he asserted his commitment to fighting corruption in Afghanistan.
If Mr. Abdullah emerged victorious in the run-off, his presidency, most likely, would have facilitated the implementation of anti-corruption policies in Afghanistan. At least his profile in The New York Times leads me to believe that. The Afghan government, too, could benefit from some “fresh blood.”
And, for all this talk about there being no other viable interlocutor for the West but the incumbent Afghan leader, Mr. Karzai appears very insecure about his own position. If he knew the victory would be his, would he not try to boost his dwindling approval ratings by agreeing to a credible run-off with his contestant? So, he is either no longer sure of his privileged status, or he just does not care what his public approval ratings are. Any other opinions?
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